As far as Intel’s Barrett is concerned, WiMAX is here to stay because of its first mover advantage in the market while LTE is still "two years away". On the other hand, Ericsson’s Eriksson is adamant that there is an inevitability that carriers will upgrade to LTE from their existing, less advanced 3G technologies, as the upgrade path is clearer and more seamless.
Addressing a gathering of analysts at Ericsson's LTE centre of excellence in Melbourne Australia, Eriksson explained the benefits of carriers and countries choosing LTE over WiMAX along the following lines:
He said that China needed a "face saving" upgrade path from its home-grown 3G technology, TD-SCDMA, to a next gen technology, and had decided on LTE over WiMAX.
A country like China with its massive population and manufacturing base already makes a huge impact on LTE and the ongoing development of LTE technology for the rest of the world – an advantage that could have been WiMAX’s, had Intel managed to convince China to go with WiMAX instead of LTE.
Given LTE is a standard the telco operators demanded from the equipment manufacturers, rather than the other way around of equipment manufacturers delivering a standard to telcos (as was the case with 3G), it makes sense that more telcos are interested in LTE than WiMAX.
In addition, LTE doesn’t mean the immediate dismantling of HSPA networks. Just as GSM networks are still in widespread use today, LTE technology will be supplemented by existing HSPA, HSDPA, WCDMA and GSM networks around the world.
Eriksson also said that LTE offered better speeds and capacity than WiMAX and would be in use by many more people around the world over the next couple of years than WiMAX, thanks to planned operator rollouts, with WiMAX’s biggest roll-out effectively being in the US.
He also noted that the WiMAX forum is only predicting 0.1 billion WiMAX users around the world by 2013, yet Ericsson expects 1.2 billion global LTE subscribers in the same timeframe.
Eriksson claimed that Clearview, the main company behind WiMAX in the US, had already committed to moving to LTE in the future, although its main backer Intel might have something to say about that, especially given the fact Intel is a US $1.6b investor in Clearview.
WiMAX was originally Intel’s way of delivering a 4G-like technology that wasn’t in the clutches of the mobile manufacturers and telcos, but after years of WiMAX delays, LTE has caught up to what WiMAX offers and rather than being due in 2011 or beyond, LTE will be rolled out by some telcos at the end of 2009 with more LTE networks to come in 2010.
Clearly as a proponent of LTE, Ericsson believes LTE is the future and will prevail over WiMAX, especially given AT&T will fiercely compete against the US WiMAX rollout using LTE technology.
In Australia, Telstra is also an LTE supporter, as are many other carriers around the world.
When you listen to Ericsson, the cards all stack up for LTE over WiMAX, and you do have to wonder – why has WiMAX taken so long to truly be delivered? It’s late, and it does have a future, but LTE and its successor, LTE Advanced, at present look to be the inevitable winners.
So, who’s right? Intel has spent billions after all in making WiMAX a standard, but despite Barrett’s claims of 300-400 rollouts of WiMAX networks around the world, most of these are for the “fixed” WiMAX standard, not the mobile standard which can be used like today’s 3.5G wireless broadband cards.
WiMAX’s biggest success is in the US, Intel’s home town, and it’s interesting to see from a Forbes article that Intel’s Barrett appears to be saying that WiMAX and LTE will converge in the future with devices that play nice with both standards.
The Forbes article asks Barrett what it’s “going to take for the seamless integration of WiMAX”.
Barrett responds: “It's a build out of the towers and the capability. If WiMax starts to build out and then the long-term evolution of 3G comes along, should we look for the seamless integration of those two technologies? You probably should. We don't need another Blu-ray and HD battle in the marketplace. If we get a great fourth-generation technology, let's make it seamless and let everybody play with it and let's not have two different versions.”
In essence, it appears that Intel has spent so much to make WiMAX a reality that it is going to roll out WiMAX no matter what, but “we should look for the seamless integration of these two technologies”.
That sounds like LTE will ultimately win the 4G WiMAX wars, especially given the number of telcos who are going down the LTE path from 2009 onwards over WiMAX.
After all, as many big players in the IT space have already found, incumbent telco operators are a difficult bunch to fight – even if you’re Intel.
Source:itwire