This is no simple calculation based on the current size of the two businesses. It’s all about expansion and market dominance, so each must be valued on its potential growth.

MTN has networks in Nigeria and Iran that have barely begun to meet the pent-up demand for cellular services.

It is already the largest operator in Africa and the Middle East with 68-million users, and runs networks in numerous African countries all housing untapped populations.

Reliance is India’s second- largest operator, serving 50 million users in a market where cellular penetration is already higher, and where Bharti Airtel is the dominant operator. On the plus side, India is the world’s fastest growing mobile market and is the largest after China.

“When you look at their relative profiles and where the big growth is coming from, I imagine the growth path for MTN is more attractive,” says Bruce Main of Ivy Asset Management. MTN could also tackle other emerging markets such as Brazil, and doesn’t need an Indian partner to do that.

Many investors would like MTN to continue its growth trajectory alone, without the hassles a merger with Reliance would cause. Better still, MTN could find another player to absorb, in the neat way it bought Investcom in the Middle East. That did not get marred by arguments over who buys whom and who wields the power. MTN has a “fantastic” growth path, Main says.

If it abandons Reliance its shares may take a knock to R100 or so. Which would be an opportunity to pick up more shares “using the vagaries of the market to your advantage,” Main says.

Source:mybroadband