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 Jul 20 2008 | 16:15
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No alarm bells at China Mobile

Updated:2008/5/26 17:15


China Mobile, the world's largest mobile telecom company by subscribers, isn't about to lose its grip on the globe's fastest growing wireless market.

Despite its stated aim to prevent a monopoly and promote competition, a revamp of the telecom sector announced by China on Saturday is really just a lifeline to the country's two fixed-line operators.

Those companies have been shedding subscribers and struggling to maintain revenue growth as Chinese consumers flock to wireless services.

And though the changes mean China Mobile now faces two challengers to its 70 per cent share of the wireless market, rather than one, neither of the new rivals has the resources or the operating efficiency to dent its position.

Under the plan, China Mobile's existing wireless competitor, China Unicom, will give up market share in the wireless sector but gain a large piece of the fixed-line business through a merger with China Netcom. It will wind up with about 22 per cent of the wireless market.

The second competitor, China Telecom will end up with about 7.5 per cent of the wireless market in addition to its existing fixed-line network.

China Mobile won't lose a single subscriber from the restructuring.

It's not just a matter of market share, though. China Mobile's grip on the wireless market has left it far more efficient at adding new customers, and better at extracting revenue from those customers than its competitors.

And Beijing's foot dragging on reforms, which were broadly outlined as far back as two years ago, have only given China Mobile time to further solidify its position.

China Mobile's subscriber base has grown at nearly twice the speed of China Unicom's so far this year.

In the first three months of the year China Mobile generated 82 yuan per month in average revenue per user. Meanwhile, China Unicom's GSM subscribers yielded about 44 yuan, and its CDMA subscribers - who are now being handed over to China Telecom - about 53 yuan.

China Mobile is also more efficiently run overall. In 2007, its return on capital employed was 41 per cent and return on equity 25 per cent, according to Infinancials. The closest to that among its competitors is China Netcom, which generated return on capital employed of 12.7 per cent and ROE of 15.5 per cent.

The threat China Mobile's rivals pose is in their ability to offer package deals that bundle services such as internet and fixed telephone lines with mobile service. But broadband internet and fixed line phone services are hardly in demand in China's countryside, where much of China Mobile's growth in new subscribers is coming from.

Beijing could still take stronger steps to increase competitive pressure on China Mobile, like allowing number portability that would make it easier for consumers to switch networks.

But China Mobile's dominant position is safe for now. And traders who pushed China Mobile's shares down nearly 4 per cent on Friday in Hong Kong and almost 6 per cent in the US needn't be so worried.  

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